CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA
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BULLETIN

 

Caribbean Hurricane Watch

Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  26

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

 

…POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING

TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…

…PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE

WARNING AREA…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION


LOCATION…16.8N 58.4W

ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM E OF ANTIGUA

ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…180 MPH…285 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…931 MB…27.50 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS


CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the

The Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the

Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the

Ragged Islands.

 

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from

the border of the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St.

Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Le

Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

  • Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis
  • Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

  • Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

  • British Virgin Islands

  • U.S. Virgin Islands

  • Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • Guadeloupe
  • Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with

  • Haiti

    • Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le

    Mole St. Nicholas

    • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Southeastern Bahamas

  •  

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

    • Guadeloupe
  • Dominica

  •  

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

    • Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona
  • Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

  •  

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

    somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

    36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

    force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

    dangerous. In this case, for some of the easternmost islands, the

    hurricane conditions are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.

    Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to

    completion.

     

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

    expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36

    hours.

     

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

     

    Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as

    well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida

    should monitor the progress of Irma.

     

    For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

    including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

    products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

    office. For storm information specific to your area outside the

    United States, please monitor products issued by your national

    meteorological service.

     

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK


    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located

    near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward

    the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected

    to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest

    tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma

    is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands

    tonight and early Wednesday.

     

    Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that

    the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher

    gusts.  Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the

    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity

    are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to

    remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple

    of days.

     

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles

    (260 km).

     

    The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance

    aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches).

     

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


    STORM SURGE:  The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and

    large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11

    feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme

    The northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and

    to the north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will

    be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

     

    The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will

    cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

    waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to

    reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at

    the time of high tide…

     

    British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix…7 to 11 ft

    Northern coast of Puerto Rico…3 to 5 ft

    Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix…1 to 2 ft

     

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

    onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

    destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

    timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over

    short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

    products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

    office.

    POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA

    WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

    warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm

    conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are

    expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane

    conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected

    to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S.

    Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm

    conditions beginning tonight.

     

    Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the

    watch area in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos,

    and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

     

    RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations

    of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across

    the northern Leeward Islands.  Irma is expected to produce total

    rain accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts

    of 15 inches across northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S.

    Virgin Islands, and amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southwest Puerto

    Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix.  This rainfall

    may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

     

    SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward

    Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands

    during the next several days.  These swells are likely to cause

    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

    products from your local weather office.

     

    NEXT ADVISORY


    Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.

    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

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